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Although lead times are now steady at six weeks, rising enquiry and workload levels are expected to boost them in the autumn.

Brickwork contractors report little difficulty in procuring materials, but cite the lack of qualified operatives as the critical factor in determining lead times. As a result, larger projects can require a slightly longer time-to-site as larger labour forces are needed. As workload increases, lead times are likely to increase in the short term, but should return to their present levels once the labour force stabilises.

Enquiry levels

Brickwork contractors contributing to Gardiner & Theobald's tender price survey all report good enquiry levels, following a drop during the early months of the year. One brickwork contractor said it was tendering for 17 schemes in the next three weeks – more than double its usual level of enquiries.

In addition to the possibility of labour shortages, some bricklaying contractors are concerned about the staff pressures that the high level of enquiries may create on their estimating departments as well as on site labour.

The industrial sector and factories in particular have suffered a slowdown over the past couple of years. Brickwork contractors now report a rise in the number of enquiries received in the past two months for factory work, often with facing brickwork up to first-floor level.

The civil engineering sector has historically provided a healthy workload for the brickwork sector, particularly sewers, roads and the like. Over the past few years, many of these schemes have stopped, with smaller-scale paving schemes providing the only enquiries for the brickwork sector.

Orders and workload

Production and delivery of bricks over the past four years has remained fairly consistent, at about 3 billion bricks a year. Stockpiles of bricks have decreased slightly since 1996, now standing at just over 1 billion. The private housing market has undergone considerable growth over the past three years, with output increasing 34% between 1994 and 1998. Although there has been a decline in the public housing sector, the net growth has produced a good base of work for brickwork contractors.

Present growth areas include the retail sector, particularly the major supermarket chains that are still developing out-of-town retail parks and redeveloping town-centre sites. Private finance initiative hospitals are also high on this agenda.

Despite rumours of impending labour shortages, most brickwork contractors are not expecting a labour crisis, although some are experiencing short-term staffing problems over the holidays.

Bernard Barrett, of Ben Barrett Brickwork, says: "August is always the worst month, but by September the labour market should have settled down." He suggests that: "It only takes a slight increase in bricklayers' day rates to attract those who left the industry back on to projects." Another large brickwork contractor said: "There are localised bricklayer shortages in certain areas, but it is not yet a national problem." It is still possible to find additional labour, but the client is bearing the extra cost.

Several brickwork contractors are concerned by the lack of apprenticeships on offer, claiming that the government's fast-track training schemes are insufficient for industry needs. "Apprenticeship pay is so low that it cannot attract young people," said one contractor, pointing out that part-time shelf-fillers in supermarkets receive higher wages. Brickwork contractors across the country would like to see either a government initiative to encourage full apprenticeship schemes, or a client-backed scheme to do the same. Without adequate training starting at grass-roots level, they warn of a severe shortage of skilled bricklayers in years to come.

Tender prices

After a 4% rise in 1998 and a slight drop over the new year, tender prices for brickwork increased again in the first half of 1999, with significant rises in hotspots in London and some other regions.

The DETR prices index for precast products, including brickwork and blockwork, shows an increase of about 3% over the past six months, but brickwork contractors report almost unchanged material prices.

Labour rates are on the increase, however, to attract additional labour into the industry. Contributors to Gardiner & Theobald's tender price survey suggest an average increase of 5% over the year, with above-average increases forecast for the South, Scotland and Northern Ireland. In the short term, it is possible that tender prices may increase even more, before settling down again at the end of the year. Contractors report that brickwork firms are all "scrabbling" for work, with much negotiation between tender submission and appointment. Many brickwork contractors have taken into consideration the lack of labour, and have increased their tenders accordingly.

Labour availability has seen some brickwork contractor's rates increase to about £100-a-day, but, unlike in previous years, we have not suffered the mass exodus of bricklayers to Europe in search of the inflated wages being offered.

The greatest migration of bricklayers this year has been to Ireland, where figures of up to £1000 for a six-day-week have been rumoured.

The new tax regulations that came into force during August, and the alterations to holiday stamps for operatives, should have little effect on direct labour costs, but are likely to increase head office and overhead costs. Contractors are so far unsure whether the effect of the Construction Industry Scheme will be great enough to push up tender prices.

Tender prices are expected to continue to rise during 2000, reflecting a steady increase in orders. Present forecasts suggest a rise of at least 4% in 2000.