Despite warnings that the government scheme is overheating the housing market, Help to Buy has tapped into Britain鈥檚 cultural desire for home ownership and helped restore confidence in the market in the process
Help to Buy has become shorthand for issues beyond the scheme that bears its name. It鈥檚 almost become shorthand for the entire UK housing market.
Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, has warned about the risks of the housing market overheating and Lloyds has introduced a cap on mortgage lending on properties above 拢500k.
Meanwhile, the chancellor has refused to intervene directly, underlining the fact that the Bank of England has the 鈥渘ecessary tools鈥 to do the job when it feels it鈥檚 required. Interest rates don鈥檛 look set to rise any time soon.
So what does the UK housing market tell us about the country and the economy? Following the storm of a financial crisis that tore through large swathes of our industry, people are moving back to the housing market in big numbers. We know that London and the South-east are running ahead of the rest of the country but, with a few exceptions, prices are up in most regions. This gives us an insight into Britain鈥檚 relationship with property and, more specifically, housing and the still sacrosanct notion of owning your home.
In London the recession, by stopping wage rises and impacting on lending, saw the balance tip in favour of private rental over home ownership for the first time. But it鈥檚 hard to believe that most of those renters are renters of choice. They rent because they have to.
Britain鈥檚 beating heart is closely linked to home ownership because home ownership confers security and stability - qualities of life that we prize as a nation
This syndrome doesn鈥檛 diminish Britain鈥檚 collective cultural desire for home ownership. Britain鈥檚 beating heart is closely linked to home ownership because it confers security and stability - qualities of life that we prize as a nation. Price not preference is the major deterrent to home ownership in the UK.
This is why Help to Buy has been such a success - it鈥檚 enabled an enduring dream. It has restored a sense of stability and security around people鈥檚 pre-existing desire to take the plunge. For all the legitimate debate around the impact of Help to Buy and its future as an instrument not only in the housing market but in the wider economy, the reality thus far is that the initiative has restored a degree of confidence and willingness in home buyers.
It鈥檚 tempting to view this through the lens of Westminster and London - and through the portals of the Bank of England. But Help to Buy is a North-east thing, a Midlands thing. It鈥檚 a regional success more than it is in the capital where the price boom is. So the idea it鈥檚 fuelling double digit price growth in the capital, where it accounts for a tiny portion of sales, is not the whole story.
The UK benefits from the success of London, but the UK is not London. Our regions, our cities are our strength and Help to Buy has permeated beyond London and into the regions. I celebrate this for all the obvious reasons as a housebuilder, but also for more deep-seated reasons. Stability is vital for business success; it鈥檚 also vital for social cohesion and a stable and settled society is part of the virtuous circle of prosperity. A stable home is a fundamental part of that feeling of security.
For all the debate around the impact of Help to Buy, the reality thus far is that the initiative has restored a degree of confidence and willingness in home buyers
In the US, there is still uncertainty around the property market and institutional investors still have a split view of construction - particularly housebuilders - as an investment destination. In his new book, Stress Test, Timothy Geithner, who was US treasury secretary during the toughest years of the crisis, makes much of the need to restore confidence and stability as a fundamental part of addressing any crisis. In the case of the UK economy, if one accepts the powerful symbolism that home ownership represents, then Help to Buy is doing its job. One might start a debate about how long it should run, but it鈥檚 hard to argue against its positive impact in the short term.
People by and large want to buy and own their homes. Of course they have an eye on the appreciation of that bricks-and-mortar asset but most people know that it鈥檚 not the fast track to riches that is often bandied around.
Consider this: Halifax says that in 2004, the average UK house price was 拢148,497; today it鈥檚 拢179,872, an increase of 21%. But in the same period, shares on the FTSE 100 delivered a total return of 110%.
By any objective standards, the FTSE wins, but owning your home has a cultural pull beyond owning shares. It鈥檚 a security and stability thing, a national trait that has endured some pretty cruel upsets. Property ownership in the UK is still a love thing. At least for now.
James Wates is chairman of Wates, the CITB and UKCG
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