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150 years ago this week, the world鈥檚 first ever underground system opened. London鈥檚 iconic tube began life in January 1863 as a ground-breaking subterranean steam railway linking the 3.5 miles between fledgling rail terminuses at Paddington and Farringdon. Today it has grown into the world鈥檚 third-largest urban metro network with only the systems in Shanghai and Seoul covering a slightly greater area. But by 2019, London Underground may edge back into second place if the proposed Northern line extension to Battersea opens.

Last November the chancellor surprised some by announcing a 拢1bn government-secured loan to finance the two-mile south London tube extension. Two new stations, Battersea and Nine Elms, are proposed along a newly-extended Charing Cross branch line that will stretch two miles west of Kennington.

The proposals are at consultation stage at present and will still have to undergo several substantial statutory hurdles before they see the light of day. These include the submission of an inevitably gargantuan Transport and Works Acts Order (TWAO) application in the spring and a public inquiry later this year. If all goes to plan, Transport for London anticipates that construction could start in just two years鈥� time and that trains could be running on the new line before the end of the decade.

Assuming this takes place, it will be the most significant increase in capacity on the London Underground network since the addition of 11 new stations to the Jubilee line in the nineties. And as with the Jubilee extension, the infrastructure will be critical to the viability and potential success of a series of major redevelopment and regeneration projects proposed along its route.

Click here to see how developments at Battersea have run parallel over the years

Regeneration

Julian Tollast, head of masterplanning and design at Quintain, key developer of Greenwich Peninsula, cites the Jubilee line extension as 鈥渁bsolutely vital鈥� for the success of the regeneration of the North Greenwich Peninsula.

鈥淭he Jubilee line was instrumental in bringing forward the key developments in that region, it was the final catalyst needed to get things going,鈥� Tollast says. He also points out thatone of the reasons why a consortium of builders failed to deliver on their proposals for redeveloping the site back in 1988 was its 鈥減oor infrastructure and connectivity鈥�.

In the wake of the announcement to support the northern line extension we have seen a rush of interest in the development

Rob Tincknell, BPLC

Stakeholders with an investment in Battersea鈥檚 regeneration hope that the Northern line extension may be equally beneficial for the host of redevelopment schemes planned there.Over the next decade, up to 16,000 new homes are planned in the Battersea and Nine Elms area, the construction of which has been estimated to generate up to 25,000 new jobs in what Wandsworth council describes as 鈥渃entral London鈥檚 biggest regeneration area.鈥�

The largest of these proposed schemes is the 拢8bn Battersea Power Station project. Over the decades, the crumbling and derelict landmark has stubbornly and consistently defied all attempts at redevelopment and in the process has become a towering symbol of stalled urban regeneration. But since the purchase of the site last year - for 拢400m by a Malaysian consortium - followed by the approval last month of Phase 1 of the Rafael Vi帽oly-designed, 16ha, 3,500-home masterplan, the landmark site appears to be enjoying its best opportunity for redevelopment in a generation and completion of Phase 1 has been scheduled for as early as 2015.

But Battersea Power Station is not the only development whose prospects might be boosted by an extended Northern line; there is a host of other nearby regeneration schemes that may benefit, dotted around a vast 195ha swath of prime riverside land stretching from Battersea to Vauxhall.

These include the recently approved 拢620m US embassy on a site just north of the power station, Ballymore鈥檚 adjacent 1,982-unit Embassy Gardens scheme, Foster + Partners鈥� 2,326-unit redevelopment of New Covent Garden Market and Allies & Morrisons鈥� redevelopment of the Nine Elms Royal Mail Sorting Office into a series of residential towers ranging from five to 23 storeys.

Scores of commentators and public figures have lined up to link directly the potential success of these schemes with the creation of the proposed Northern line extension. Wandsworth council planning chairman Nick Cuff, mayor of London Boris Johnson, and even George Osborne, the chancellor himself, described the tube link as 鈥渒ey鈥� to the redevelopment of the power station and to creating the 16,000 homes envisaged for the area.

Battersea Project Land Company鈥檚 (BPLC) Rob Tincknell also reveals that 鈥渋n the wake of [the] announcement by the UK government to support the extension of the Northern line underground line to Battersea and Nine Elms, we have seen a new rush of interest in the development from potential purchasers.鈥�

But just how critical is the tube extension to the success of the proposals at Battersea Power Station as well as the regeneration prospects of the wider area? Could all this be jeopardised if the extension doesn鈥檛 go ahead?

What鈥檚 the difference?

Mark Farmer, partner and head of residential at EC Harris believes that the Northern line extension鈥檚 potential impact is twofold. 鈥淎lthough the extension is definitely a plus, in the short-term there would probably be no immediate impact on the development prospects for the area if it didn鈥檛 happen. Battersea Park train station is located near the power station and Phase One has already received planning permission and is likely to be sold with success, even without the extension. TfL has also estimated that the area鈥檚 current transport links can support roughly an additional 8,000 homes and there is already an awareness amongst most investors that this is a fringe rather than core central London site.

鈥淏ut in the medium to long-term and with the development of future phases, capacity will definitely be an issue and there would certainly be serious negatives to not having the extension built.鈥�

Although the extension is definitely a plus, in the short-term there would probably be no immediate impact if it didn鈥檛 happen

Mark Farmer, EC Harris

Seema Manchanda, assistant director of planning and environmental services at Wandsworth council, describes the extension as a 鈥渃ritical part of delivering a mixed-use quarter at Battersea Power Station鈥� and considers it the 鈥減riority鈥� among the several transport schemes - including a new Thames pedestrian bridge and expanded riverbus services - being proposed for the area.

Intriguingly, Manchanda also points out that the extension鈥檚 viability is further underwritten by its critical role in securing the post-Phase 1 development of the site. 鈥淭he planning consent for the site has a Grampian condition that has always required that occupation of any phase after Phase 1 would only take place once the Northern line extension was secured鈥�.

Can the extension therefore be viewed as the critical ingredient that will finally deliver the redevelopment that has evaded Battersea Power Station for so long?

Both Farmer and Manchanda believe it can and Manchanda attributes the council鈥檚 confidence in the scheme to a 鈥渃ombination of the new Malaysian investors, a workable planning permission and greater certainty of delivering the infrastructure.鈥�

What if it doesn鈥檛 happen?

After the chancellor鈥檚 announcement, former London mayor Ken Livingstone was quick to point out that despite the government loan, the Northern line extension remains
鈥渁n aspiration which the government will consider鈥� and that it is not a watertight 鈥減romise or commitment鈥�.

Tube enthusiasts will also be well aware that the history of London鈥檚 underground network is littered with eagerly anticipated proposals that went nowhere. These include the perennially proposed extension of the Bakerloo line to Camberwell and the seventies鈥� planned Fleet line (although part of this route eventually morphed into the Jubilee line, hence its 鈥渂attleship fleet鈥� grey colour on the Underground map).

Others have also criticised the decision not to extend the new Northern line another two miles west to Clapham Junction, thus integrating the UK鈥檚 busiest train station into the tube network for the first time.

In response to both concerns, Manchanda points out that the government鈥檚 loan has 鈥渁lready been agreed and it will be paid back through the S106 contributions and business rates鈥�.

鈥淭he main S106 agreements have been agreed already and once the Enterprise Zone is established a mechanism will be in place to secure the business rates. TfL are working hard on the TWAO so progress is well underway,鈥� she adds.

She also admits that while there is 鈥減otential鈥� for extending the line further to Clapham Junction and that the possibility is being 鈥渟afeguarded鈥�, 鈥渁dditional funding simply isn鈥檛 available at the moment鈥�.

These views are echoed by Michelle Dix, managing director for planning at TfL:

鈥淲e would love to be able to extend the Northern line even further so it reaches Clapham Junction. Although currently there isn鈥檛 the funding available for this, we are working closely with the government and local boroughs on potential options for the future 鈥� and it is a requirement that the extension be designed so that an additional extension would be possible in the future.鈥�

If, however, the Northern line extension to Battersea does happen, as all involved seem committed to ensuring, it may not only significantly accelerate the regeneration of
a forlorn and neglected part of London but

its approval in the same year as the tube鈥檚 150th anniversary will also be a fitting tribute to a revolutionary public transport network whose inception transformed civil infrastructure and urban planning across the world.