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Harlow is the new town that shrank. The first of the post-war new towns, it grew rapidly following its foundation in 1947, proving a popular draw for London鈥檚 Blitz-battered slum dwellers. By the late 1960s, the town鈥檚 population was more than 80,000, which is where it peaked.

But within a generation, the population had dropped below 75,000. It has since recovered to 78,500, although that rise has to be seen in the context of a 10% increase in the surrounding area鈥檚 population over the same period.

It鈥檚 just one of the ways that things didn鈥檛 turn out like the town鈥檚 masterplanner Sir Frederick Gibberd had envisaged. The eminent architect of Liverpool鈥檚 Catholic cathedral had an uplifting vision of the c

ommunity that he was creating, eloquently reflected in the town centre鈥檚 Festival of Britain-style architecture and the sculptures by the likes of Sir Henry Moore and Auguste Rodin that dot Harlow鈥檚 public spaces. These days, Harlow people prefer lower-brow fare, judging by the upcoming attractions at the local Playhouse, which include Elkie Brookes and Richard Digance.

鈥淟ike all of the post-war new towns, it offered a good life for people who had shifted out of London to realise the dream 鈥� good housing and good facilities for families,鈥� says Graeme Bell, former director of the Town and Country Planning Association and a resident of nearby Welwyn Garden City. 鈥淏ut like many of the mark-one new towns, it is ripe for regeneration and the question is how that can be achieved.鈥�

A walk through the town centre illustrates why it has slipped from 78th to 130th position in the national retail hierachy over the past two decades. One end of East Walk, once the town鈥檚 main retail thoroughfare, contains the kind of high-street multiples that cheer the hearts of institutional investors. But the other is faring less well, the units either vacant or occupied by cheap goods retailers. Even some of the bargain-basement merchants are having trouble 鈥� PriceLess Jewellery is advertising 鈥淗uge Reductions鈥� on the day that Regenerate comes to town. The town square is practically deserted on a sunny midsummer鈥檚 day.

The covered Harvey Centre shopping mall, recently acquired by the Reuben brothers of Olympic site fame, is busier, as is the newly completed Water Gardens retail development. The latter scheme represents the first phase of the council鈥檚 regeneration plans for the town as well as the most significant break with the Gibberd masterplan, which has until recently guided Harlow鈥檚 development. Wilson Bowden鈥檚 redevelopment of the open space surrounding Gibberd鈥檚 Water Gardens has provided 21,739 m2 of retail space and a new civic centre.

But the town鈥檚 post-war council estates need 拢47m worth of investment. And the network of neighbourhood centres, around which Gibberd planned the town, is showing its age. According to the council鈥檚 regeneration strategy, 鈥渕any are in decline and viability is questionable as they approach the end of their lifetime鈥�.

Alistair Howe, a local architect and member of the Harlow Civic Society, pins the blame for the town鈥檚 physical problems on the way the Harlow Development Corporation was wound up in the early 1980s. 鈥淭he housing stock was passed on to the local authority with virtually no maintenance budget. For 20 years, there has been virtually zero maintenance,鈥� he says.

The poor economy

And the town鈥檚 problems are deeper rooted than the state of its built environment. For a start, its economy is lagging behind that of the surrounding area, where the number of jobs increased by 22% in the decade to 2002. The equivalent figure for Harlow was 12% 鈥� one of the lowest job growth levels recorded in the proximity of London.

The town contains relatively few small enterprises with just 38.4 VAT-registered firms per 1000 economically active people; the England and Wales average is 62.7. 鈥淏asic skills in Harlow are among the lowest in the region,鈥� says the regeneration strategy, pointing to figures showing that only 31% of 16- and 17-year-olds stay on in full-time education, perhaps unsurprising in a town where the proportion of the population with no qualifications exceeds the national average.

The low skills base helps to explain why non-residents fill less than half of the town鈥檚 jobs. The bulk of these commuters come from the surrounding towns and villages where, the strategy acknowledges, quality of life is better.

Paradoxically, however, the town remains an important centre for cutting-edge industries such as IT and pharmaceuticals. Harlow has the third highest research and development capacity per head of population of any UK town after Cambridge and Oxford. The fibre-optic cable, without which the internet could not work, was invented in Harlow. Companies such as GlaxoSmithKline and Nortel Networks have facilities in the town. 鈥淲hen I was working there, the kind of people who were travelling up on the train for their meetings and jumping into taxis, it was like going to Cambridge,鈥� says Greg Lee, a director at the planning consultancy Colin Buchanan and Partners, which drew up the government鈥檚 M11 growth corridor strategy.

The town retains strong advantages as a business location, which is likely to be boosted by the continuing development of nearby Stansted airport. 鈥淐lose by you鈥檝e got very nice countryside and international transport links in Stansted airport and the M25,鈥� says Howe.

The council believes getting the physical environment right is the key to persuading well-heeled professionals to live and shop in the town. The council says the town needs a 鈥渄ramatic transformation鈥�, involving a mix of housing growth on the outskirts, intensification of existing neighbourhoods and an overhaul of the town centre鈥檚 retail development. But to bring about such a revamp, the strategy estimates that 拢350m worth of infrastructure investment is needed, including a new link road to the M11. Paul Bird, the council鈥檚 regeneration director, says: 鈥淲e need a critical mass of development to add impetus.鈥�

New homes for Harlow

But a project that represents the kind of quantum leap that Bird envisages 鈥� Ropemaker Properties鈥� plan for a 25,000-home extension to north Harlow 鈥� has received a setback after the publication of the panel of inspectors report into the East of England regional spatial strategy.

Ropemaker, an offshoot of BP, argued that the site represents the most sustainable direction for the growth of Harlow, given that the town centre and railway station are both located at the northern end of the town. But the inspectors rejected proposals for the 10,000-home first phase of the scheme on the grounds that because it is physically separated from the rest of the town by a river and railway line, it would turn into a stand-alone settlement.

Instead, the inspectors recommend an extra 13,000 new homes for Harlow, split between a series of smaller scale extensions to the east, west and south of the town. It also says more new housing will have to be provided within the town itself, such as Barratt鈥檚 500-dwelling Gateway scheme that is being developed on the site of a redundant sports centre between Harlow railway station and the town centre.

But should Harlow be developed using the same pattern of neighbourhoods separated by green wedges around which Gibberd planned the town? The council鈥檚 own regeneration strategy says the existing neighbourhood pattern has helped to create inward-looking areas, increasing social exclusion.

Howe defends the neighbourhoods, which contain 600 to 1400 households apiece. 鈥淎rguably, it should be assessed in a great deal more detail than it has in terms of the sustainable communities plan. The neighbourhood approach is based around the idea that everything you need is within walking distance and the town is covered by a network of cycle routes, which are part of the overall masterplan. It has a real quality about it that you don鈥檛 get in many towns,鈥� says Howe.

June Storey, a long-standing resident and stalwart of the Civic Society, agrees. 鈥淭he neighbourhoods have become like little villages,鈥� she says. 鈥淲e鈥檝e lived here for 49 years. Harlow is a good place to live because you have all of the facilities, they are intermingled with the houses. It鈥檚 been adopted all over the world. You go to Japan and it鈥檚 all little Harlows.鈥�

鈥淪ome of the planning principles of the 1940s are still valuable today,鈥� says urban designer Roger Evans, who has masterplanned the New Hall extension to the town, which uses many elements of the Gibberd template. But while the green wedges ensure that residents have access to open space on their doorsteps, they increase the footprint of each district. Thus the extensions are even further away from the town centre, which means residents are more likely to use cars or buses to get around than walking or cycling. 鈥淕etting the bus services off the ground is a high priority, but it鈥檚 not easy on the scale of proposals that we are dealing with,鈥� says Evans.

In New Hall, construction is about to start on new district centres at the heart of neighbourhoods. But according to Evans, this poses problems given retailers鈥� preference for locating in car-friendly peripheral locations.

At the same time, the council is pressing ahead with plans to pick a private sector development partner to revamp the town centre by the end of the year, which is also likely to mark a significant departure from Gibberd鈥檚 vision. 鈥淥ur priority for the town centre is to see it improved, a better range of shops and for it to become a sub-regional shopping centre,鈥� says Bird.

But Howe is sceptical about this retail-led strategy, arguing that even an improved Harlow would be hard pressed to compete with the attractions of the nearby Lakeside mall. Instead, he would like to see the town centre earmarked for business development, which at the moment tends to occupy Harlow鈥檚 business parks. 鈥淚f you want to successfully regenerate Harlow, one of the first things you have to do is to bring business back into the town centre. It would bring a large amount of daytime activity to the town centre. We should make it a unique destination to live, work and play.鈥�

Getting it right will determine whether Harlow attracts a new generation of new town pioneers or becomes a dumping ground for the region鈥檚 housing problems.