Mott MacDonald says transport upgrade package could boost economy by 拢22bn over four decades
A new trans-Pennine high-speed rail link connecting Leeds and Bradford with Manchester would be worth 拢8bn more than previously estimated to the northern economy over the next four decades, according to research by Mott MacDonald.
The firm鈥檚 just-published reappraisal of the proposed Northern Powerhouse Rail upgrades show that the Leeds-Manchester element of the plans 鈥� originally known as HS3 鈥� could deliver a 拢22bn boost to the regional economy by 2060 without factoring in other parts of the proposals.
Mott MacDonald said traditional cost-benefit analysis had failed to recognise the true economic potential of the link, first set out by then-chancellor George Osborne in 2014 as part of a wider package of measures dubbed the 鈥楴orthern Powerhouse鈥�.
Research by the firm said that traditional analysis techniques suggested the Northern Powerhouse Rail would increase the area鈥檚 Gross Value Added economic productivity by 2% a year in the Northern Powerhouse area, equating to 拢14.4bn by 2060.
Mott MacDonald said factoring in simultaneous action across skills, planning, utility provision, education, tourism, leisure and industrial policy meant GVA could rise by 8% because of the new Leeds-Manchester line alone.
Prime minister Boris Johnson had been expected to confirm the new high-speed line would proceed at last week鈥檚 Conservative Party conference.
His speech contained just one reference to the project 鈥� a commitment that the government 鈥渨ill do Northern Powerhouse Rail鈥�. But it was lacking in further detail or timescales.
Henri Murison, director of the Northern Powerhouse Partnership 鈥� the think-tank set up by Osborne to promote his Northern Powerhouse vision 鈥� said the North was still waiting for the rail step-change it had been promised.
He said it would be impossible for the government to deliver on its pledges to level up left-behind parts of the country without delivering Northern Powerhouse Rail and completing the eastern leg of HS2 鈥� linking the West Midlands with Leeds 鈥� which currently has a huge question mark hanging over it.
鈥淯ncertainty over rail investment, in particular the eastern leg of HS2, is doing huge damage to our economy. We need to start building from the North down from Leeds to reach Sheffield to unlock connectivity benefits sooner,鈥� he said.
鈥淭his is vital to releasing much-needed capacity on the rail line, improving local connections and allowing more goods to be transported by freight instead of heavily-polluting HGV lorries.鈥�
The Integrated Rail Plan is expected to be published in the run-up to chancellor Rishi Sunak鈥檚 Spending Review and Autumn Budget on 27 October.
It was originally supposed to be published in March.
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