Chair of influential committee of MPs says HS2 鈥榮carcely worth the candle鈥 without evidence to back up claims

HS2

The chair of the influential Treasury select committee has questioned the economic case for the 拢55.7bn HS2 project and said the project is 鈥渟carcely worth the candle鈥 without credible data.

In a letter to transport secretary Chris Grayling, select committee chair Andrew Tyrie criticised the government鈥檚 latest economic business case published in November, which bumped up the projected benefit-to-cost ratio to 拢2.70 for ever 拢1 spent, up from 拢1.10 for every 拢1 spent stated previously.

Tyrie said without an explanation for this large increase 鈥渢he business case suggests that HS2 is scarcely worth the candle.鈥

He added: 鈥淪o, the credibility of this sharp rise in forecast demand is crucial to the whole HS2 project.鈥

According to the Department for Transport, one of the causes has been a much more rapid growth in passenger demand between 2011 and 2014 than predicted by HS2 Ltd.

Tyrie added that it is a 鈥渟erious concern鈥 the forecasting model used by HS2 Ltd 鈥渇ailed to provide a reasonably accurate prediction for 4 years鈥 worth of growth.鈥

The select committee chair has called on the transport secretary to provide evidence for the government鈥檚 claim about the economic benefits.

Commenting on the correspondence, Tyrie said: 鈥淚n the last Parliament, the Treasury Committee examined the proposals for HS2. A lack of rigour in the economic case was manifest.

鈥淥n the basis of the evidence provided so far, many people remain to be convinced that the 拢55bn projected costs for HS2 offers better value for money than a lower speed, lower cost alternative.鈥