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Homes England鈥檚 拢11.5bn affordable homes programme is expected to miss a lowered estimate for delivery, a senior official for the government agency has confirmed.

The programme was originally expected to deliver 180,000 homes but the National Audit Office said in September 2022 it forecasts completions to be 22,000 homes fewer.

Shahi Islam, director of affordable housing at Homes England, has now confirmed to 好色先生TV鈥檚 sister title Housing Today that completions will be 鈥渟ome way鈥� lower than this revised 158,000-home target.

The rise in inflation and borrowing costs since the mini-Budget in 2022 have seen Homes England and the Greater London Authority, which administers the programme in London, increase grant rates for schemes where housing associations were struggling to make projects viable due to increasing costs.

Islam said: 鈥淚f you鈥檙e introducing higher grant rates and do more social rent, then there will potentially be a compromise on numbers,鈥� he said, agreeing that the overall figure will now be 鈥渟ome way south鈥� of the NAO鈥檚 figures.

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>> See also: 

In London, the GLA had been originally expected to deliver 35,000 homes with 拢4bn of grant but last year agreed to deliver between 23,000 and 27,000 for the same funding.

Tom Copley, deputy mayor for housing at the GLA, said delivery has been further hampered by what he calls a 鈥渃haotic and haphazard鈥� implementation by the DLUHC of rules requiring second staircases on high-rise buildings.

See Housing Today tomorrow for Joey Gardiner鈥檚 in-depth analysis of the Affordable Homes Programme