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I first heard it from Terry Farrell. During an interview last October, we were talking about a recession that already seemed inevitable. 鈥淭he only good thing about a recession,鈥� he said, 鈥渋s that it gives you time to think about your plans, and take stock. Don鈥檛 print this, but recessions can be good for architecture.鈥�

I didn鈥檛 print it then, and am only doing so now because I鈥檝e heard it from so many other people. The Japanese architect Kengo Kuma said more or less the same thing when he accepted his Honorary Fellowship from the RIBA in February, and the 2009 Royal Gold Medal winner himself, Alvaro Siza, talked to 好色先生TV of a return to austerity and consideration in architecture. 鈥淚 think that from this crisis will emerge another moment,鈥� he said. 鈥淎n architecture that is essential and not reliant on things that are not needed.鈥�

What is not needed, it is becoming increasingly clear, is the architectural icon. Although it is a problematic term, an 鈥渋conic building鈥� is one that shouts about its presence, that transcends its context and makes a commanding statement. It might be a svelte skyscraper or a curvy blob, and will as likely as not have been designed by what national journalists like to call 鈥渟tarchitects鈥� 鈥� Zaha, Gehry, Vi帽oly et al. But in the new financial reality, the concept of a building that shows off its material wealth has become unfashionable. But when the developers begin building again, what kind of architecture will take its place?   

鈥淭he icon era is over,鈥� says Steve McGuckin, the former development director of Land Securities. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 not to say that you won鈥檛 get great buildings with great architecture, but there is a feeling now that environmental and economic issues are more pressing. The ostentatious display of wealth in architecture will be in poor taste.鈥�

Self-consciously iconic designs are already being scrapped in favour of less adventurous schemes. In 2006 Legal & General and Stanhope, its development partner, brought together two of architecture鈥檚 biggest names, Norman Foster and Jean Nouvel, to design a mixed-use scheme at Walbrook Square in the City of London. Original designs showed four cloud-like structures, which were immediately nicknamed 鈥淒arth Vader鈥檚 Helmet鈥�. A redesign made it more commercial and crystalline, but the sale of the building to Spanish client Metrovacesa is understood to have provoked further changes. One of the options on the table, according to sources close to the scheme, is a new approach by American architect Gensler. It is no Ateliers Jean Nouvel, but its experience of workplace design could mean a more economically advantageous scheme for its cash-strapped developer, which is keen to avoid the redundant space that is a perennial feature of adventurous designs. Similarly, ambitious proposals by Will Alsop for a tower at 151 City Road were thrown out in favour of a more conservative scheme by Jestico + Wiles. Other architects are having to redesign their own schemes to make them more economically viable: Herzog & de Meuron鈥檚 revamp of its Tate Modern extension is one example.   

鈥淎 lot of people are going to look again at schemes on the drawing board and work out how they can become more efficient, and how to get costs down,鈥� says Nigel Webb, development director of British Land.

鈥淵ou鈥檙e not going to see many construction projects starts in the next couple of years, and some of the more iconic schemes will be shelved.鈥�

McGuckin, before he left Land Securities for Turner & Townsend, was responsible for bringing Jean Nouvel鈥檚 One New Change and Rafael Vi帽oly鈥檚 as-yet-unbuilt Walkie Talkie tower to the City of London. He sees things somewhat differently. 鈥淚t depends on how long this thing lasts,鈥� he says. 鈥淚f it鈥檚 a two-year slowdown with a bounce back in 2011, I can鈥檛 see a lot of changes. But if we鈥檙e looking at five years in the cold, then we could see a different movement altogether.鈥�

Clients may see the 鈥渋conic building鈥� as an expression of their financial capabilities, but planners are most often after something else. When such buildings are given planning permission, it is usually because of the anticipated 鈥淏ilbao effect鈥�. Frank Gehry鈥檚 1997 Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao, an unapologetically bold 鈥渆vent鈥� building, was widely seen to have single-handedly regenerated the entire city. As a result, second cities around the world sought their own pieces of iconography. 鈥淏ilbao was a big shift in terms of how architecture was perceived in the market,鈥� says Declan Carroll, the principal of Arup Associates. 鈥淪uddenly, it was seen to be something that would transform a place鈥檚 cultural identity. But that鈥檚 the opposite of what architecture should be about. It should be the other way around, surely 鈥� a place鈥檚 cultural identity should inspire its architecture.鈥�

Places in the UK sought the Bilbao effect, but ended up building white elephants. Daniel Libeskind鈥檚 bombastic Imperial War Museum North in Salford, completed in 2002, is probably the most high-profile misfire. Will Alsop鈥檚 The Public, a 拢50m arts building in West Bromwich that has not opened nine months after completion, has already become synonymous with over-reaching regional ambition. Webb says the recession will effectively put an end to these sorts of projects.

鈥淲hen you go to some of the provincial cities and see some of the buildings that have shot up there in recent years, it does make you wonder how they got built,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hose sorts of opportunities will disappear now, perhaps for good.鈥�  

What, then, will replace it? In the short term, not much. Apart from schools, infrastructure and the Olympic Park, little is going to get built in the UK in the next couple of years. But entries are flooding in to what few design competitions there are. A recent competition to design a humble 拢5m data centre for the British Film Institute attracted more than 100 interested parties. Even those who might not have entered competitions a year ago are starting to now. Gehry last month popped up on the shortlist for a 拢300m university campus in Glasgow alongside firms such as 好色先生TV Design Partnership, Atkins and Archial.

In the longer term, many agree with Siza that a more modest architectural vernacular will prevail once developers begin building again. McGuckin names David Chipperfield as the type of architect whose considered minimalism will appeal to clients. 鈥淚f you look at the BBC 好色先生TV at Pacific Quay, it鈥檚 not an expensive building. The cost is in the technology rather than the architecture. It鈥檚 an object lesson in how to make the money work quite hard.鈥� Of course, an executive architect, Keppie, took over from Chipperfield on that particular project in 2004, but the industrial aesthetic remained the same.

Others say the icon is not dead just yet. Hanif Kara, principal of the design-led engineering consultant Adams Kara Taylor, has worked on many iconic projects, but he doesn鈥檛 like the term. 鈥淲hen you say 鈥榠conic鈥�, you mean 鈥榮omething that costs a lot鈥�,鈥� he says. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a perception that something that has curves, for example, will automatically cost more, but it doesn鈥檛 have to be the case.鈥�

He predicts that big-name architects will continue to design as they have done but that they will need to adapt. 鈥淭here will still be a global demand for design-led architects. The likes of Zaha will always design curves. The challenge will be to convince the clients that good design can add value without cost. The architecture will need to be considered, and not do crazy, costly things.鈥�  

Many of the architects who have become known for their ostentatious buildings started out designing small, radical projects 鈥� Zaha Hadid鈥檚 Vitra Fire Station in Germany a notable example 鈥� and perhaps if these practices are forced by the state of the market to build 拢5m data centres rather than 拢500m skyscrapers, a sense of proportion will prevail. It might be a difficult sell to the thousand or so architects now claiming the jobseeker鈥檚 allowance, but the economic slowdown will force the design community to take a step back and examine the work it is doing in more detail. A recession is indisputably bad for architects, but it could be good for architecture.