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In May 2005, Grant Shapps became member of parliament of Welwyn Hatfield in Hertfordshire. Just two years later his place in the county hall of fame was assured. When the government allocated the area an extra 4,000 homes as part of a plan to boost the number of new homes to 10,000 by 2021, it was Shapps who spearheaded the campaign against the development under the slogan 鈥淣o way to 10k鈥�.

Since then, Shapps has become shadow housing minister and, in something of a turnaround, he has promised that a future Conservative administration would build more new homes than the current Labour government. His proposed solution to the housing shortage is to scrap regional targets and devolve all housing decisions to councils, while making it in their financial interests to develop.

However, this pro-development stance isn鈥檛 one that comes naturally to a large part of the party (see boxes, right). Tory councillors control the bulk of local authorities in the South-east, where housing pressures are greatest. Given that many are, like Shapps, known for opposing development, it is not clear which Conservative party will come to government in 2010.

The plan

The Labour government brought in a system of 鈥渢op-down鈥� planning in which regional assemblies decided targets. Regional and local goverments have been in conflict ever since, and the Tories say the system is broken.

Shapps鈥� proposal is to introduce a policy of 鈥減lanning gain鈥�, which involves adapting the section 106 process to offer incentives for communities to stimulate support for housebuilding. He argues that there is not enough infrastructure in communities such as Welwyn Hatfield to support a large number of extra houses, but that offering benefits such as community centres and leisure facilities would quell opposition to development. The Tories plan to provide financial incentives by allowing councils to keep council tax receipts from new residents rather than return them to the Treasury.

According to Shapps, more housing was built using this system under the previous Tory administration than is the case under Labour today, so there is no reason why it should not work again. 鈥淎ll the evidence on whether to do this top-down or bottom-up is on our side. If you look at what happened before the government鈥檚 top-down system, there were more houses being built.鈥� (See graph overleaf).

The doubts

However, according to figures from the Home Builders Federation (HBF), this may be a slightly selective view of history. 鈥淭here was a spurt of housebuilding in the eighties because the planning system was completely different and was more permissive,鈥� says John Stewart, director of economic affairs at the HBF. He adds that when the Conservatives transferred more power to the councils in the early nineties, the number of houses built in England actually dropped. By 1996, the number of completed homes had fallen to 149,086 鈥� from 202,929 in 1988.

Many industry insiders believe that if an incoming Conservative government once again embraces 鈥渂ottom-up planning鈥�, they will struggle to win over councils 鈥� especially in the South-east. 鈥淐onservative-controlled councils across the south-east of England are relying on an incoming Tory government to reduce pressure on housebuilding. On that basis, a Conservative government could end up having a considerable argument with its own councils,鈥� says Ian Tant, senior partner at consultant Barton Willmore.

The questions

Although the Conservative party has pledged to abolish density targets in order to reduce the number of apartments built, they have also promised to curb building on back gardens. This may lead to a further restriction of land supply, which poses the question of how they will succeed in building more homes. And with no targets to meet, the Tories have already admitted they would not step in if building levels failed to rise. 鈥淲e wouldn鈥檛 intervene if that was the settled will of the community 鈥� they have to decide,鈥� shadow planning minster Jaqui Lait has said.

鈥淭he Conservatives need to explain how they will build more homes if they scrap targets and prohibit back-garden development,鈥� says Stewart. 鈥淭here are only two ways you can build more houses 鈥� more land or more density.鈥�

But Shapps has pledged that housebuilders will reap the benefits of these proposals. 鈥淭here is a tendency for builders to say, 鈥榃here will we be without targets?鈥� But every housebuilder knows the present system isn鈥檛 working. My abolute topline is that a Conservative government will ensure more houses, not less, will get built in this country.鈥�

This certainly sounds promising, but many believe the Tories will have an uphill struggle to convince the industry that their approach could spark a resurgence in housebuilding. 鈥淚t is all very well pledging something,鈥� says Stewart, 鈥渂ut the feeling in the industry is that if you devolve power down to councils, there could be many who will take the opportunity to constrain development.鈥�

What the councils say

Henry Smith

Leader of West Sussex council

Area population 776,300

Length of time in post Elected leader in 2003

Need to know In 2005, the South East Plan recommended that 58,000 houses be built in the county. In 2007, Smith became chairman of the Tory-led South East County Leaders Organisation, a lobby group opposing the housing provisions. Laura Moffatt, Labour MP for Crawley, has accused Smith of 鈥渞epeatedly rejecting any projections of the housing needed for our young people鈥�.

What he says 鈥淚鈥檝e never been against building in West Sussex. There is clearly a need for new housing and enough affordable housing for young people and key workers. The idea that people here are nimbys and don鈥檛 want development is nonsense. The allocation for our area in the South East Plan has been revised to 38,000. The first figures were pie in the sky. What problem does this government have with the democratic process at a local level? When local people were trusted to make the decisions during the last Conservative government, the housing was fine.

鈥淚 find it galling and hypocritical to accuse councils of not building houses when it is the government that took away this power. The reality is that hardly any bricks have been laid over the past 10 years.鈥�

David Lee

Leader of Wokingham council in Berkshire

Area population 30,403

Length of time in post Elected leader of the council in May 2008

Need to know Wokingham council has objected to the housing allocations in the South East Plan, which recommends that 10,246 houses be built in the area by 2026

What he says 鈥淲okingham is an old market town. We want to preserve its character and greenness. There is now a high-density development being pushed into back gardens to make it a stereotypical large-scale town. The 623 houses we鈥檝e been allocated a year is too many. I find it obnoxious that we鈥檝e had planning offices, planning committees, residents and MPs agreeing that a location is inappropriate. It goes to appeal and it takes one person 鈥� just one 鈥� to overturn it and say it is appropriate. Where is the democracy in that?

鈥淚鈥檇 sack all the planning inspectors except when it comes to issues of law. If there is demand for houses in an area, then we should be building to accommodate it. We should not be working to a number. To say you are going to build 40 dwellings per hectare in an area that gives people that live in it pleasure and start stipulating that you have to put up tenements is nonsense.鈥�

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