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It was supposed to be the project that drew together the communities of Northern Ireland: a 38,000-seat stadium and conflict resolution centre, built on one of the bitterest sites in its history. But instead, plans to turn the Maze prison into a symbol of the end of the Troubles have achieved the impossible: they have further polarised the province.

The first problem is the Maze itself. In 1981 it was the site of a hunger strike by IRA and INLA prisoners in which 10 of them died. This has led Unionists to denounce the 拢240m stadium and the conflict centre as a shrine to Republicanism. They want the project to be built in Protestant east Belfast, which has drawn a predictable reaction from the Catholic community.

Now, with 拢5m already spent, stakeholders on all sides of the argument expect Peter Robinson, who on 2 June took over from Ian Paisley as Northern Ireland鈥檚 first minister, to scrap the stadium any day now. It might even have happened by the time you read this.

The nightmare of history

Nine miles south of Belfast, HM Prison Maze was opened in 1976 as a jail for paramilitaries. Throughout the eighties and nineties, it housed some of the most notorious figures on both sides of the sectarian divide, including the Ulster Defence Association鈥檚 Johnny 鈥淢ad Dog鈥� Adair and the IRA鈥檚 Sean Kelly, who tried to assassinate him by blowing up a chip shop full of civilians on the Shankhill Road.

The Maze was closed in 2000 after the Good Friday Agreement, and in 2003, it was announced that a government taskforce would look into regenerating the site. Three years later it unveiled a masterplan, complete with 38,000-seat stadium, also to be known as the Maze, and the conflict centre. Demolition started in October 2006.

David Hanson, then a Labour minister at the Northern Ireland Office, said: 鈥淭he Maze has long been associated with conflict. Clearing the site will be part of the mission to transform it into a symbol of economic and social regeneration, renewal and growth.鈥�

All set to go

Plans for the stadium and the centre are well advanced. HOK Sport and Mott MacDonald have been selected as stadium designers, and a shortlist of consortiums led by Laing O鈥橰ourke, Sisk Group and Bovale Developments has been drawn up for the development partner role. The race to win the design for the conflict centre was contested by architects including Daniel Libeskind and Studio Egret West.

It is understood that winners in both these categories have been chosen, but that ministers were waiting until a definite go-ahead was given before informing the successful teams. Now we may never know who won.

Richard Grover, a project manager for Davis Langdon, the lead consultant on the Maze proposals, said that it would be a great shame: 鈥淎 lot of work has gone into these bids.They鈥檝e spent six months working them up in the expectation that the project would go ahead.鈥�

The intention was to create a meeting place and educational centre where people could learn about how Northern Ireland made the journey from the dark days of the Troubles to the power-sharing agreement of today. David West, the co-founder of Studio Egret West, quoting from the bid document, says: 鈥淭hey wanted 鈥榓 design that would be a sustainable symbol of peace and a catalyst for a society moving from division towards a shared future鈥�. It was quite inspirational.鈥�

The practical objections

So how did the executive go from shortlisting development partners less than six months ago to giving the project the thumbs down now? The answer can be found in two reports, one prepared by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in March and the other by Drivers Jonas in April. Both give compelling reasons against building at the Maze.

The PwC report, commissioned by the executive, totted up the costs of building a stadium and found them to be about 拢100m more than had been estimated 鈥� a total of 拢126m for the stadium, and 拢114m for surrounding infrastructure.

According to Grover, this would be a difficult figure to justify. 鈥淭here are only 2 million people living in Northern Ireland,鈥� he says, 鈥渟o a contribution of 拢100m would represent roughly 拢50 per person.

If you had the same thing in the rest of the UK, 拢50 a head would be the equivalent of a stadium worth 拢2.45bn. Going ahead would be a big decision.鈥�

The Drivers Jonas report was commissioned by Belfast council and looked at the comparative regeneration benefits of building at the Maze compared with Belfast city. There was no competition, according to Brian Thompson, the partner in charge of the six-month research project.

鈥淥n everything 鈥� commercial use, accessibility, transport, and sustainability in particular 鈥� Belfast came out top,鈥� he says. 鈥満蒙�先生TV at the Maze would cut across so much government policy on where stadiums should be located in terms of accessibility regulations and carbon footprint. Every case study we had showed the capacity for regeneration is far greater in a city-centre location.鈥�

Thompson adds that he quoted Rod Sheard, design principal of HOK Sport, in his submission to the council. Sheard once said that to find the ideal location for a stadium you choose a city, stick a pin in the centre and find the nearest available site. 鈥淚ronically, his team was the one that designed the Maze stadium!鈥� laughs Thompson.

This is a view shared by David Burnside, an Ulster Unionist assembly member He says the capital would be the obvious choice. 鈥淚n terms of economic viability and commercial sense, the only place for a national stadium is Belfast city centre,鈥� he says. 鈥淣obody wanted to build Wembley in Northampton.鈥�

Drivers Jonas was asked to isolate five city-centre sites that could be used for building a stadium. It duly found them, and sent the findings to the executive. Drivers Jonas has now been asked to narrow down its search to one single preferred site in a city-centre location with a fairly equal balance of Protestants and Catholics.

The centre becomes what it鈥檚 about

The two reports were compelling enough, but the practical arguments against building at the Maze were equalled by political difficulties over plans for the conflict centre. Ironically, a building to promote peace caused considerable conflict in the halls of the Northern Irish assembly.

The Ulster Unionists鈥� Burnside says that the idea of the conflict centre was bound to be cause strife, and should have been taken out of the original proposals. 鈥淭here could be a good sporting complex of some kind at the Maze, we鈥檝e no problem with that,鈥� he says, 鈥渂ut it is completely ludicrous to bring in something that some people will think of as a memorial to the Troubles.鈥�

Martin McGuinness, the Sinn F茅in deputy first minister, has denied that a conflict centre at the Maze would become a memorial to the prisoners who died there. 鈥淚鈥檓 not arguing for a shrine,鈥� he told assembly members earlier this year. 鈥淚f we want a conflict transformation centre, then it has to focus on how we resolve conflict.鈥�

Sinn F茅in has not said whether it will push for the centre without the stadium, but it has made clear that it will veto a Belfast location for it. But if there is to be no stadium at the Maze, what will be built? The government owns the 350 acres of land surrounding the prison, and parties on all sides of the argument agree that redevelopment is vital for the area. Burnside says a motorcycle racetrack, a showground for equestrian events and an agricultural centre are all possible. 鈥淪omething will be built there,鈥� he says. 鈥淭here鈥檚 no doubt of it.鈥�

Whatever happens, it will only add to the money the government has spent on preparing the scheme, which is estimated to stand at 拢5m. Burnside seems unfazed by the figure. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 what governments do,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hey spend money on consultants rather than making their minds up.鈥�

That money has been good news for companies such as Davis Langdon, but Grover sounds genuinely sad that the stadium will never be built. 鈥淧eople have put their heart and souls into this project,鈥� he says. Grover is one of the few to have analysed in any detail the three bids for the development partner role. 鈥淣obody wants to see a shopping mall or sheds.They could have built something wonderful.There were some fantastic ideas in the bids. But at the end of the day, nobody ends up with anything.鈥�

And when Peter Robinson鈥檚 final decision is made, the people of the six counties will be just as far from freeing themselves from the mentality of the Troubles as they ever were.