ONS revises construction output upwards from -0.6% to -0.2% for third quarter
The latest set of output construction figures show that ouput fell 0.2% between July and September 2011. This compares with a previous estimate of -0.6%.
Construction economist Brian Green said the revision was to be expected. 鈥淭he process used by the ONS at the moment leads to quite substantial upward revisions each month.鈥
He said: 鈥淭he current set of figures remain consistent with the industry dipping into recession in the coming months.鈥
The ONS also revised up Q2 output growth from 1.5% to 2.6% and Q1 output growth from -2.7% to -1.9%.
Simon Rawlinson, head of strategic research and insight at EC Harris said the result was significantly better than he expected.
鈥淚 was a bit surprised because I thought they were going to be much worse than this,鈥 he said. 鈥淭he GDP figures showed a [much larger] 0.7% decrease in the construction component in the third quarter.鈥
But Rawlinson added that he does expect worse figures to emerge in the coming months.
鈥淚 think the slowdown does have to happen at some point because of the new orders figures,鈥 he said.
鈥淚nterestingly, [this morning鈥檚] results showed that new work in housing fell in the third quarter by about 4%, which seems to contradict what housebuilders are reporting.鈥
Andrew Duncan, managing director of property at Turner & Townsend, talked of a 鈥渢idal wave of uncertainty washing across the Channel鈥 due to the Eurozone crisis.
鈥淥ver the summer months sentiment in the sector did improve - or rather became less funereal,鈥 he said.鈥滲ut these third quarter figures will dash any hopes that the worst is over.
鈥淭he one, meagre, ray of light is the steady increase in levels of repair and maintenance work. But that cannot offset the dropping off of new build work.
鈥淭he omens for next year are not good, as the Eurozone saga shows little sign of abating, and the doubt it is sowing risks undermining the fragile progress made by the industry in 2011.鈥
Read the blog for anlysis on the revised output figures.
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