好色先生TV

As mentioned in my previous blog, the seminar on retail development in Europe鈥檚 big five this afternoon promised news of an 鈥渆normous development pipeline鈥�, something I would imagine translating into plenty of opportunities for the construction industry.

Well, an enormous pipeline there might be but unfortunately the delegates from the UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and France were unanimous in their announcements that a massive chunk of that wouldn鈥檛 see the light of day in 2010, or 2011 for that matter. And some projects in the pipeline may simply never materialize at all.

I wish I could be the bearer of brighter news. Despite there being a 鈥減urposeful鈥� mood here at MAPIC, as Mark Disney from CBRE put it early today, the retail development pipeline is still not looking healthy.

Martyn Chase from DTZ kicked off the proceedings with an overview of the market in the UK saying that most projects have been delayed and that 鈥渄ay by day there is no start date鈥�. He added that projects to be built or opened in 2010 were limited with a similar story in 2011. His projections for beyond the next two years were no more positive: 鈥淎nd after that? It looks pretty thin to be honest. It鈥檚 a tale of decline in the UK.鈥�

Jan Eijkemans, managing director of MAB Development Group said that it was a similar state of affairs in Germany with lots of projects on hold.

Pietro Malaspina, director of Sierra Developments gave an overview of Spain and Italy. In Italy he pointed to some more positive news with the opening of a 41,000 sq m mall last October which is faring well and the construction of another centre in La Spezia next month.

But he said that Spain was not in such a strong position, being a more mature market. In nine months only 11 new shopping centres have opened in the country equaling just 231,000 sq m, down 35% on the average 371,000 sq m over the last decade. 鈥淭here are 54 projects in the pipeline,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t is around 1.4m sq m but it is likely that 50% of this will not see the light. In 2010 we are meant to deliver 38 new projects plus 8 to carry over from 2009. We predict only between 20 and 24 will actually go ahead.鈥�

Finally to France and Albert Malaquin could do nothing but follow in the footsteps of the other big four which his predications: 鈥淔or 2010/11 the retail development pipeline is 1.9 sq m but we won鈥檛 reach that. It will be nearer 1.2m sq m.

The reaction to the talks was one of what Chase joked as being 鈥渟tunned silence鈥� as no questions came from the deadly quiet audience after the facts and figures were delivered in quick succession.

Desperate to end on a more positive note, the panelists all said that, despite such tough economic times it was not all bad news and the positive, forward looking attitude at the conference was not na茂ve.

Chase said that stores including Apple, Abercrombie, Claire鈥檚 Accessories and Primark were all after retail space in the UK proving that retailer demand is out there.

Malaspina added: 鈥淢y father always said 鈥業 got through the 1929 crisis.鈥� So this time round I think I will do the same as him. Let鈥檚 all do the same. Let鈥檚 be positive because there are signs of a recovery. Things can only improve.鈥�

Here鈥檚 hoping!

I will report again after tomorrow鈥檚 early start as CBRE releases new research on Europe鈥檚 most active retailers over breakfast.