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See this year鈥檚 Top 150 Contractors and Housebuilders tables here

Given all the recent turmoil in the world of contracting, you might have expected to see a vastly different Top 150 this year to last, with big names dropping away and insurgents elbowing their way up the league. Well 鈥� sorry to disappoint 鈥� there鈥檚 nothing quite that dramatic to report. 

Despite well-reported woes at Galliford Try and Kier, and last year鈥檚 fifth-placed firm, Interserve, suffering a pre-pack administration as its debts threatened to overwhelm it, there are only minimal changes in the top 10. Interserve, now reborn as a privately-owned business, slips just one spot to sixth place in the tables 鈥� which rank contractors and housebuilders by turnover 鈥� while Laing O鈥橰ourke, last year鈥檚 number seven, falls out of the top 10 entirely, courtesy of a 拢250m drop in revenue. O鈥橰ourke鈥檚 space is taken by housebuilder Bellway. 

鈥淚鈥檓 not worried about turnover, it鈥檚 about profit. Our margin will go up significantly鈥�

Mark Reynolds, Mace

But for most of these businesses, it is in truth not the minutiae of who鈥檚 up and who鈥檚 down (see Who鈥檚 up and Who鈥檚 down, overleaf) that is focusing minds in the boardrooms. For contractors, the experience of Carillion, Interserve and now Kier mean debt and cash are the most important topics 鈥� some distance above turnover 鈥� while the government is also forcing fair payment onto the agenda. 

Meanwhile, housebuilders, which have ridden a Help-to-Buy fuelled wave of growth for more than half a decade, are looking ahead with some degree of uncertainty for the first time in years, not least to the ending of the 拢11.7bn support package from 2023. What does the data tell us about how well placed these industries are to weather these challenges?

Getting better?

Largely, this year鈥檚 tables further reinforce the long-term trend of growing dominance by housebuilders. Whereas 10 years ago there were just two pure housebuilders in the top 10 firms, now there are five. Many, such as Bellway and Persimmon, have seen turnover more than double in the last decade, while the 10 biggest housebuilders this year reported pre-tax margins on average more than 10 times higher 鈥� at over 18% 鈥� than the equivalent-placed contractors.

However, the data does show some chinks of light for contractors. Turnover for Top 150 contractors reached 拢63bn, a rise of 3%. But recent high-profile failures mean firms and their customers appear less and less focused simply on size. Mark Reynolds, chief executive of third-ranked contractor Mace, which reported bumper revenue growth to 拢2.4bn this year, says he is relaxed about the fact turnover will fall 鈥渜uite significantly鈥� for the firm next year. 鈥淭here was a bit of a spike in our last year from our international business and data-centre contracts, and this year will be less. I鈥檓 not worried about turnover, it鈥檚 about profit. Our margin will go up significantly.鈥�

鈥淚t鈥檚 not disastersville. But the consensus now is there鈥檒l be no earnings growth this year and next 鈥� and the risk is it might begin to fall tony williams, building value鈥�

Tony Williams, 好色先生TV Value 

The tables show margins did continue to slowly recover in the last year, hitting 3.2% on average across the 94 contractors in the table. But the biggest firms seem once again to have the biggest problems 鈥� even if not everyone is reporting the losses seen at Interserve or Laing O鈥橰ourke. Mace鈥檚 Reynolds, for example, blames 鈥渃hallenges on a couple of projects鈥� for the fact it reported just 1.4% pre-tax margin this year. 

Tony Williams, managing director of analyst 好色先生TV Value, says: 鈥淭he big issue is that pricing has not properly recovered since the global financial crisis, and until it does the industry will be decimated.鈥� Overall, the margin for the top 10 contractors was a paper thin 1.6%, up slightly on 1.3% last year, but way below the nearly 4% for those ranked 50 and below. 

One former chief executive of a listed contractor, now an adviser, blames this disparity on the sheer size of these businesses, saying this makes it much harder for their bosses to have a grip on the position of individual projects. 鈥淭he more tiers of management there are, the more capable these businesses are of deluding themselves that things are OK, and that鈥檚 where problems develop.鈥�

Cash and debt

This is unfortunate given concerns that workload may have peaked in the short term, largely due to Brexit anxiety, and as illustrated by Costain鈥檚 recent profit warning. The latest new orders figures show orders for housing and infrastructure work, the mainstay of recent workload, starting to tail off, with the latest Purchasing Manager鈥檚 Index falling to its lowest score in a decade. Mace鈥檚 Reynolds says it is in part a Brexit effect. 鈥淐lients are being more choosy about when and where they start work, while at the same time funders are more choosy about where they invest,鈥� he says. 

Despite this, some way above workload and even margin in the priority list for contractors is, of course, cash and debt. There is no doubt investors and customers alike have been seriously spooked by the collapse of Carillion and Interserve and the problems at Kier, visible from the punishment meted out to Costain鈥檚 share price 鈥� it collapsed 43% 鈥� after it announced a modest profit warning late last month.

Kier admitted in June that some trade credit insurers have stopped supporting it, meaning some of its suppliers are even demanding payment in advance. Sector analyst Alastair Stewart says: 鈥淭here鈥檚 an unbelievable lack of faith in the sector. It鈥檚 all about who鈥檚 got debt and who鈥檚 not.鈥�

Morgan Sindall, for example, has taken to reporting daily cash figures in attempt to allay concerns. Aynsley Lammin, building analyst at investment bank Canaccord Genuity, says: 鈥淐ustomers and subcontractors want to be able to trust that these businesses will be an ongoing concern,鈥� while 好色先生TV Value鈥檚 Williams simply says: 鈥淔or contractors, survival is the big issue.鈥�

This focus means that those firms without debts are doing everything they can to advertise the fact. Graham Dundas, finance director at debt-free Willmott Dixon, the 13th largest contractor, says potential customers are 鈥�100%鈥� asking far more questions about financial strength. 鈥淲e鈥檙e cash-rich and our balance sheet is debt-free,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a key differentiator for us.鈥�

Growing government pressure for prompt payment is adding to the pressure on cash-poor contractors, as any attempt to pay subbies more quickly sucks up available cash. Stewart says: 鈥淚f you鈥檙e used to sitting on a client鈥檚 cash and paying your suppliers more slowly, then even a small swing in this rate and you start haemorrhaging cash.鈥� As Kier has been forced to start paying more quickly, for example, it鈥檚 promise of getting to a net cash position by June has turned into an expectation of a 拢195m deficit.

Unsurprisingly, of course, this issue too is becoming a selling point for those in a more fortunate position. Mace鈥檚 Reynolds advertises the fact that his business has reduced its payment times from 43 days to 30 in the last year, while Willmott Dixon鈥檚 Dundas says its record on prompt payment helps keep nervous subcontractors on side. 鈥淲e鈥檙e in a world where the supply chain has a choice, they鈥檙e much more aware of payment terms and the cash cycle.鈥�

It is also self-protective, he says, because he sees subcontractor collapse as one of the key risks faced by his business. 鈥淚t鈥檚 our biggest concern. With the failure of some tier 1 [contractors], a new VAT regime and pressure on workload, it鈥檚 a bit of a perfect storm potentially for suppliers,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e going to have to take the lion鈥檚 share of risk on the Brexit shambles too, with fixed-price orders.鈥�

Disastersville? 

In comparison to the state of play for contractors, the housebuilders at first glance appear to be happily occupying the sunlit uplands. No surprise: turnover among the 45 featured has grown more than 50% in the last three years alone. But even here there are reasons for caution. Evidence from recent housing starts figures appears to show that build rates are at or near peak in the current cycle, with Persimmon, for example, recently announcing a fall in completions for the first half of this year, its first for a decade. 

For the first time in years, the Top 150 reports a (very slight) fall in average pre-tax margin for the housebuilders, from 14.7% to 14%. Williams says this is probably the best the market can expect for the next couple of years 鈥淚t鈥檚 not disastersville. But the consensus now is there鈥檒l be no earnings growth this year and next 鈥� and the risk is it might begin to fall.鈥�

Some, such as Countryside, are still showing significant growth (see Who鈥檚 up, left), but generally only where they occupy a specific niche 鈥� partnership housing with local authorities and housing associations in Countryside鈥檚 case. Chief executive Ian Sutcliffe says the general market, beyond Help-to-Buy-fuelled first-time buyer sales, is sclerotic. 鈥淭he area that is most struggling is where people are trying to trade up. It鈥檚 not that they don鈥檛 want to buy, it鈥檚 that they鈥檙e struggling to sell in a second-hand market that hasn鈥檛 had the investment from Help to Buy. It鈥檚 really had the brakes put on.鈥�

These concerns are reinforced by the imminent curtailing of Help to Buy, which according to government figures has boosted housebuilding by around 15%, in 2021, and its cancellation in 2023. But with the likes of Berkeley making 拢210,000 in profit for every house it sells, and the rest of the industry commonly between 拢50,000-拢65,000, there is room for margins to tighten. 

Hence housebuilders, largely debt-free, are confident they can ride out a modest downturn. The top issue for many is build quality and customer service, following pressure over historic failings at Bovis and perceived low standards at Persimmon. 鈥淧roduct quality and customer care is more at the forefront than for a long time,鈥� says Canaccord Genuity鈥檚 Lammin. 鈥淚t鈥檚 the biggest issue. Bovis has shown how getting it wrong can affect the bottom line.鈥�

All in all, life is a lot less do or die for housebuilders than contractors 鈥� and without major industry reform it is hard to see how that is likely to change.