This is a crucial year for HS2. As it waits for the government to give the signal to proceed in earnest, there are fears that rising costs could derail the project
HS2 represents the single biggest investment in Britain鈥檚 transport system since the motorway programme of the 1960s, and will be the first major national railway to be built since Victorian times. It is not only the government鈥檚 biggest major project, but also the largest infrastructure scheme in Europe.
For some this scheme to build a brand-new high-speed line connecting London and Birmingham in the first phase and then on to Manchester and Leeds, is history in the making, while others dismiss it as a white elephant of gargantuan proportions. What is undeniable is that the vision of a high-speed rail network, which began a decade ago when the government created HS2 Ltd, is, against all the odds, still very much alive.
Helped in no small part by cross-party political support, HS2 has survived years of austerity that have seen cuts in public spending, several legal challenges in the high courts and years of campaigning against it.
鈥淭he project team are working on the basis that there鈥檚 no more money and are looking at innovative ways of trying to get the same solution but within that funding envelope鈥�
Sir Terry Morgan, former HS2 chair
But now, just as the project is within touching distance of starting construction in earnest, a doubling of projected budget estimates is putting the scheme at risk of being massively scaled back or even scrapped. So, what are the pressures bearing down on HS2 and are they enough to jeopardise 鈥� or at least compromise 鈥� the very future of the UK鈥檚 most important infrastructure project, one that, according to some, could eventually top 拢85bn?
Read: HS2 timeline - a recap of HS2鈥檚 development since 2009
Read: Mace and Balfour the big winners as HS2 announces contractors for 拢3bn London stations
In pictures: HS2 unveils images of Old Oak Common station
Opinion: Where will HS2 end up?
Awaiting a green signal
The case for HS2 has evolved over the past decade, from focusing on cutting journey times to increasing capacity and now as a catalyst for growth. Transport minister Nusrat Ghani said last month: 鈥淚t is not just a railway line; it is a regeneration line.鈥�
Phase 1 of the 拢56bn programme is due to open in December 2026. Phase 2a from Birmingham to Crewe is due to open in 2027, while Phase 2b from Crewe to Manchester, and from Birmingham to Leeds, is scheduled to be ready by 2033.
This year is a crucial one for HS2, as it waits to find out whether the government will issue the notice to proceed that will enable construction on Phase 1 to finally commence. HS2 Ltd is confident this will happen, with a spokesperson telling 好色先生TV: 鈥淣otice to proceed will happen this year, when we are ready.鈥�
Enabling works have started, including for the new stations at Euston and Old Oak Common (see On Site at Old Oak Common, overleaf), and although the appointments for the main construction works are a month late, 好色先生TV understands they are expected any day. Meanwhile, the Hybrid bill needed for Phase 2b to progress has been delayed by a year and will now be placed before parliament in 2020.
HS2 Ltd, however, stresses that work is progressing. A spokesperson says: 鈥淗S2 is real and happening. With over 7,000 jobs supported by the project we currently have 62 live sites.鈥� What鈥檚 more, it says it has already let 鈥渁round 拢10bn work of contracts鈥� and 鈥渂y the end of the year that will be around 拢20bn鈥�.
And it points out that the amber rating given the project by the Infrastructure and Projects Authority (IPA)鈥� indicating 鈥渟ignificant鈥� but resolvable issues 鈥� is acknowledged by the IPA itself to be expected on 鈥渁 project with the scale and complexity of HS2 at this early stage [鈥 in line with other national infrastructure projects鈥�. So, nothing to worry about then?
Something鈥檚 gotta give
The trouble is that cost concerns have become a major issue, as estimates of the final bill have escalated. In 2012 the government budgeted 拢32.7bn for HS2; by 2013 this had jumped to 拢42.6bn. The latest estimate, done in 2015, is that it will cost 拢55.7bn.
A leaked HS2 report emerged last year in which Paul Mansell, a senior government adviser on major projects, warned that the project 鈥渋s highly likely to significantly overspend鈥� and cost more than 拢80bn. And quantity surveyor Michael Byng, who created the method used by Network Rail to cost its projects and who has prepared a 4,000-page document analysing the costs of HS2, has even claimed that the true cost could reach 拢85bn.
When it comes to balancing cost with scope and time, 鈥渟omething has got to give鈥�, according to former HS2 chair Sir Terry Morgan. Speaking during a hearing on HS2 by the Lords economic committee last month, he claimed 鈥渘obody knows鈥� what the project will end up costing.
Morgan, who was sacked as Crossrail chair last year after it emerged that the project was behind schedule and over budget, stepped down from HS2 to avoid the project being tarnished with the controversy over Crossrail.
He told 好色先生TV that the problems with Crossrail 鈥渉ighlight the importance of getting system integration right and HS2 has got time to do that鈥�.
Morgan added: 鈥淭he project team are working on the basis that there鈥檚 no more money and so they are looking at innovative ways of trying to get the same solution but within that funding envelope that鈥檚 available to them.鈥�
The coming months will be critical, with 鈥渟ome key moments coming up on the programme where they need to start laying down some big contracts鈥�. He added: 鈥淭hat鈥檚 the big issue, getting approval to make those contracts, and they won鈥檛 get that unless they can demonstrate there鈥檚 a solution to resolving the funding needs with the scope and speed determined at the moment.鈥�
Cost increases and delays are a familiar blight on major projects, with the revelations over Crossrail 鈥� that there is a 20% risk that the project will bust its newly approved 拢17.6bn budget 鈥� a recent example that has cast a shadow over HS2. But the sheer scale of HS2 makes the stakes far higher.
The list of those working on HS2 reads like a who鈥檚 who of the building world, ranging from the likes of Costain, Skanska, Morgan Sindall, and Bam Nuttall to Laing O鈥橰ourke, Kier and Balfour Beatty.
Contractors are clashing with HS2 Ltd over the mismatch between the funding they say is needed and what is actually available, according to sources involved in the project.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, one source said: 鈥淭hey are having a challenge closing the gap between target costs that are being proposed and their budgets.鈥�
The source added: 鈥淭he target costs are quite onerous numbers to agree. I鈥檝e heard the gap is anywhere between 20% and 100%.鈥�
Some sources close to the project are warning that Phase 2b 鈥� particularly the part of the line between Birmingham and Leeds 鈥� could be at risk of being cut to enable the programme to remain within its current budget.
On site at Old Oak Common
Walking onto the site of what will become the new Old Oak Common station in north-west London, the size and scale of the HS2 project is immediately apparent, writes Jordan Marshall.
It is just one of hundreds of sites across the country where early works are under way to deliver the 拢56bn train line, but the massive amount of work to be done at Old Oak Common is representative of the scope of the wider project.
According to Matthew Botelle, project director of the Old Oak Common job, the subterranean box (that includes all the underground structures), which measures around 1km in length and is 60m wide, is the second largest in the world. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 what attracted me to this job,鈥� says Botelle, who was previously Transport for London鈥檚 strategic director for the Northern Line Extension and the programme director on Dubai鈥檚 metro project. 鈥淭here is never going to be another station of this scale built in Britain.鈥�
Botelle reckons it鈥檚 a big year for both the HS2 programme as a whole and for the team pushing ahead with Old Oak Common, saying that one of the big issues is the public perception that nothing has been happening on the scheme 鈥� something he promises is all about to change at Old Oak Common.
The early works contractor, a joint venture between Costain and Skanska, is already working hard on site, while the first images of what Old Oak Common will look like, which have been spearheaded by a design team led by WSP, were released earlier this week.
Developed designs are set to be approved by HS2 in March, while the application for schedule 17 consent will be submitted in April.
Meanwhile, at the time of going to press, 好色先生TV understands the construction partner for the main package of works at both Old Oak and Euston will be appointed imminently, with the main construction works to start in earnest at the end of this year or early next.
鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be a big year for HS2,鈥� Botelle says. 鈥淏ut that鈥檚 what also makes it exciting.鈥�
Weakening support
And there are signs that the political support for HS2 is on the wane. Recent months have seen some MPs demand the project be scrapped, and concerns about costs have been raised by Andrea Leadsom, leader of the House of Commons, as well as former foreign secretary Boris Johnson.
Liz Truss, chief secretary to the Treasury, has warned that this year鈥檚 spending review will be 鈥渆xamining all major investment projects across government鈥� and 鈥渨e must be prepared to junk the white elephants鈥�.
Baroness Randerson, Liberal Democrat transport spokesperson, warned: 鈥淭he danger is that it will never get further north than Birmingham if costs are not cut.鈥� And Labour shadow transport secretary Andy McDonald has said 鈥渢here will be no blank cheque from Labour鈥� for HS2.
Prime minister Theresa May stepped in to defend the programme last month, telling MPs: 鈥淚t will bring tens of billions of pounds鈥� worth of benefits to passengers, suppliers and to local communities up and down the route.鈥� And HS2 maintains that the programme 鈥渃ontinues to enjoy cross-party support鈥�.
Betrayal
Yet concerns were recently raised by business and political leaders in the north of England that HS2 could be cut altogether. This prompted transport secretary Chris Grayling to warn that 鈥渁 failure to deliver it would be a dereliction of our duties to improve the life chances of everyone in this country鈥� and 鈥渁 huge betrayal of the people in the Midlands and the North.鈥�
MPs are set to quiz HS2 next month. Labour MP Lilian Greenwood, chair of the transport select committee, told 好色先生TV: 鈥淨uestions have been raised about whether the government will be able to deliver HS2 to specification and within budget, and there are obviously concerns about how the business case for the project will be affected if costs increase or the ambition of the project has to be scaled back.鈥�
She added: 鈥淲e are hoping to schedule a session on HS2 in mid-March.鈥�
There are already signs that the project is in trouble when it comes to balancing the books. Questioned by MPs at a meeting of the All Party Parliamentary Rail Group last year, HS2 chief executive Mark Thurston openly suggested ways in which money could be saved 鈥� by reducing the number of trains and cutting the speed.
But changes to the scope of the programme could, as Greenwood says, affect the business case for it, which could make it vulnerable to being cut back or even scrapped.
The notice to proceed that the government must issue for construction work to begin on HS2 will be dependent on a revised business case being considered by ministers and officials from the Department of Transport, the Treasury and the Cabinet Office over the weeks ahead.
Value for money
Lord Alistair Darling, who signed off on Crossrail when he was transport secretary, told 好色先生TV: 鈥淚t would be better to spend the money on improving lines in the Midlands and the north-east and west of England and their links to the East Coast.鈥�
He added: 鈥淪maller-scale projects are easier to manage and, importantly, deliver on time and cost.鈥�
A benchmarking study commissioned by the government from PricewaterhouseCoopers, released last year, found that HS2 was more expensive than other schemes.
The report, which examined more than 30 high-speed rail projects, found that high-speed rail lines can be delivered at an average cost of 拢32m per km. It stated: 鈥淭he early estimate of 拢81m per route km for the capital cost of HS2 Phase 2 is at the high end of the range of costs of international high speed rail schemes.鈥�
It added: 鈥淢ore urban routes, or those that have a high density of existing infrastructure, are typically delivered for between 拢43m per km and 拢61m per km.鈥�
HS2 has more than enough money to do the job, according to former HS2 chair, Sir David Higgins. He told 好色先生TV: 鈥淎ll of our benchmarking told us that European infrastructure can be done substantially cheaper.鈥�
In terms of the budget, he commented that it is 鈥渨ell above the European benchmark so the issue is to challenge the industry to deliver it to the median that is set out in the budget鈥�.
But Conservative MP Dame Cheryl Gillan, a longstanding critic of HS2 who would like to see it scrapped, told 好色先生TV there is an issue in terms of the 鈥渃apacity of the construction industry to actually deliver this project鈥�.
A HS2 contractor visited her office late last year to complain about the problems finding the number of engineers needed, she claimed. 鈥淭hey would have to bring them in from abroad and train them and house them and move them around 鈥� and the logistics and the pressures of that cause major issues and major problems for these companies,鈥� she said.
A HS2 spokesperson responded: 鈥淲e are working with our supply chain to ensure we deliver on the budget we have been set by government.鈥�
The Department for Transport, meanwhile, is remaining tight-lipped over the future of HS2.
In a statement, a spokesperson said: 鈥淲e expect the business case to be submitted later this year 鈥� the decision over the notice to proceed will be made after this.鈥�
It鈥檚 likely that the 拢4.4bn the Department for Transport accounts show has already been spent on HS2 will be weighing heavily on their minds as they consider how to proceed.
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